|
NCAA March Madness is one of the best times
of the year for college basketball fans to bet on their
favorite teams. However, if you are a basketball fan who is
new to betting during NCAA March Madness, then you may need
a few pointers to help keep you from losing money on bad
March Madness picks. Below are some tips to get you started.
Printable March
Madness Brackets
10 Tips for Making Better
March Madness Basketball Picks
1. Get to know your team
Study your teams, learn their strengths and weaknesses, know
their home and road records, and evaluate them objectively.
Pay attention to changes in the quality of a team from one
season to the next as players graduate and changes occur in
coaching staffs.
2. Value betting - find low
risk high reward action
Successful basketball gambling requires getting value on
your bets ... basically this means getting better than the
"true" odds on your team. For instance, if your objective
prediction for a game suggests that Duke should be receiving
5 points but are in fact receiving 8, then this is a value
betting proposition. In this case, the risk to reward is
very much in your favor, making Duke a strong play.
3. Bet against public opinion
Certain teams always have a strong public following. For
years, the Chicago Bulls were one such team, having captured
the public's admiration during the Jordan years. High-value
bets can often be found by betting against these teams
because the odds makers adjust the line to reflect the
expected amount of public money ... thus, the underdog is
often listed with better odds or a larger pointspread than
they realistically deserve.
4. Stay abreast of injuries
Watch the injuries, but don't overreact to them. Judge the
importance of an injured player and the quality of his back
up. Remember that second-string players are often highly
qualified and are especially motivated when replacing a
starter, so it often pays to bet on a team missing its best
player. The public normally overreacts to injuries so you
may find good value in this situation. However, beware of
situations where there is more than one injured stud or
there is an injury to the team's captain or inspirational
leader.
5. Bet on motivated teams
Sometimes a team doesn't play up to its potential and, at
other times, may play well above what is indicated by their
overall record - especially in critical games. Determine how
important a game is to a team. If the team has already
clinched a playoff spot, they may be more focused on the
post-season than the present game. Conversely, a team facing
a must-win situation to make the playoffs may be highly
motivated. A team out to revenge a defeat earlier in the
season may also be very motivated.
6. Bet with your head, not
your heart
Make an honest assessment of a team's chances, not one based
on emotions. Don't bet on a team simply because it's your
favorite without considering the real odds. Be selective and
remember that you will only find value betting situations in
a small number of games. Betting the entire NCAA schedule
every week is a risky proposition at best.
7. Don't chase your losses
When you do run into the inevitable losing streak, don't
panic and make the common mistake of betting larger amounts
in an attempt to recoup your losses. Instead, examine your
handicapping methods and reduce your betting amounts until
you start winning again. Remember - chasing your losses is
the single biggest mistake a gambler can make. Once you
start winning again, increase your bets slightly, but don't
go overboard - unfortunately, like losing streaks, winning
streaks also come to an end.
8. Don't bet just for the
sake of betting
There is no shame in passing up a bet. Remember that there
are sports betting opportunities almost every day of the
year. Don't bet simply for the sake of gambling - be patient
and wait for good value betting opportunities.
9. Practice smart money
management
Good money management is just as important as picking
winners. Increase your betting amount only when showing an
overall profit and reduce your betting amount when you are
losing. Try to set a maximum percentage of your betting
capital that will be placed on any one bet in order to
minimize your exposure ... many professional handicappers
suggest that no more than five percent of your wagering
capital be at risk on any one bet, no matter how strongly
you feel about the game.
10. Keep accurate records
Accurate records of your wagering activity are essential for
increasing your winning percentage. For example, do you tend
to bet your home team or your favorite team more than you
should? What are the current trends - are more underdogs
winning early in the season? By maintaining records of
statistics as well as your betting history will help you to
avoid destructive wagering patterns and, at the same time
will enable you to spot trends that may give you an edge.
|
